ANALYSIS: Museveni’s state of the nation address

Progress, power, and the promise of transformation

ANALYSIS | JULIUS BUSINGE | On June 5, the Kololo Ceremonial Grounds in Kampala were sealed off—an exclusive zone accessible only to those clutching invitation cards, as President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni delivered the highly anticipated State of the Nation Address.

Under the afternoon sun and against a backdrop of military precision and national symbols, the nation’s top political and institutional leaders gathered for what has become an annual ritual of governance. At the same time, television stations, radios, and digital media buzzed with live broadcasts, ensuring the ordinary Ugandans—those whose votes breathe life into the republic—were not left behind.
But as the address drew near, public opinion simmered with sharp contrast. Critics, many of them weary of Museveni’s nearly 40-year grip on power, dismissed the speech as another familiar chorus—replete with lofty ambitions but shadowed by a history of corruption, political suppression, and fading public infrastructure.

Yet his supporters stood firm, praising the occasion as not only a moment of national reflection but also a window for accountability, policy discourse, and dialogue on Uganda’s journey through challenge and change.

President Museveni’s address opened with a tone of reassurance and continuity. Security and peace featured prominently. Uganda, he noted, has remained largely peaceful, even as regional conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, and Sudan threaten to destabilize East Africa.

Peace, politics, and security

Domestically, the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF), Police, and Intelligence Agencies have maintained law and order, with counter-terror operations yielding the rescue of 223 abductees from the ADF in Eastern DRC. The government has also made significant investments in border security and has continued to engage in joint regional operations to curb transnational threats.

Beyond military might, Museveni praised the UPDF for its developmental roles, particularly in rehabilitating schools and infrastructure through its construction brigade. In Karamoja and other regions previously plagued by cattle rustling and cross-border incursions, security deployments have been sustained, resulting in a significant reduction in violence and improved community stability.

Politically, Museveni remained unapologetically firm on his ideological path. Reaffirming the National Resistance Movement’s (NRM) long-held principles of patriotism, Pan-Africanism, socio-economic transformation, and democracy, the president described Uganda’s journey as one rooted in a “mass line” ideology—prioritizing the collective uplift of the population rather than the interests of a privileged elite. These ideological anchors, he argued, continue to shape policy direction and guide economic planning.

Museveni responded defiantly to international critics and donors who have raised concerns about governance and human rights. He particularly addressed the suspension of new funding by institutions like the World Bank, asserting that Uganda will not compromise its sovereignty for external approval. Instead, the country is focusing on internally generated growth, strengthening state-owned enterprises, and expanding key sectors like oil, minerals, and manufacturing.

Economic progress

On the economic front, Uganda has posted impressive indicators. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently ranked Uganda as the seventh fastest-growing economy globally. GDP is projected at Shs 224.9 trillion (USD 60.4 billion) by June 2025, up from Shs 42.6 billion (USD 11.4 billion) in 1986. This remarkable growth—nearly 15-fold in dollar terms—has occurred despite external shocks and declining donor support.

Museveni emphasized that the country’s Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP now stands at Shs 638.9 trillion (USD 171.6 billion), expected to grow to Shs 696.2 trillion (USD 187 billion) by 2026. Household income per capita is rising, projected to move from Shs 4.7 million (USD 1,259) this year to Shs 4.97 million (USD 1,330) next year. National poverty has dropped to 16%, surpassing the 2025 goal of 18.5%, while income inequality has reduced with the Gini coefficient falling from 41% in 2020 to 38% in 2025.

Export performance has strengthened significantly. Uganda’s merchandise exports grew by 26% to Shs 34.8 trillion (USD 9.3 billion) by March 2025, with gold, coffee, cocoa, sugar, and industrial products leading the way.

Tourism and remittances are recovering strongly, projected at Shs 5.6 trillion (USD 1.5 billion) and Shs 5.2 trillion (USD 1.4 billion) respectively. The Ugandan shilling has appreciated by 6.1%, making it the most stable currency in Africa, while inflation has remained at a comfortable 3.4%, good for investor planning and household purchasing power.

In line with reducing dependency on external financing, Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) has significantly boosted domestic revenue collection. Current projections show Shs 31.9 trillion (USD 8.6 billion) to be collected in FY 2024/25, with an expected increase to Shs 37.2 trillion (USD 10 billion) next year. Through technological tools like EFRIS, intrusive scanners, and digital monitoring systems, government is tightening loopholes in tax collection, enhancing efficiency, and minimizing evasion.

Uganda’s economy is increasingly diverse, no longer reliant solely on traditional commodities. A study by the Harvard Economic Growth Lab revealed that Uganda has added 20 new export products over the last decade, including vaccines, ICT equipment, solar panels, and advanced pharmaceuticals. The country is also positioning itself for high-value exports in serums, electronics, and biotechnology.

Manufacturing and agriculture

Manufacturing output has grown exponentially—from Shs 880 billion (USD 237 million) in 1986 to Shs 29.8 trillion (USD 8 billion) today. The development of industrial parks and special economic zones, supported by improved electricity supply and road infrastructure, has enabled manufacturers to expand regional and international exports.

Agriculture remains the bedrock of Uganda’s economy. The government has invested in irrigation infrastructure, constructing 92 solar-powered schemes and rehabilitating others to boost production in high-potential districts. Major crops like maize, coffee, dairy, and fish are showing strong growth, with coffee exports reaching Shs 4.1 trillion (USD 1.1 billion) and maize exports valued at nearly Shs 748 billion (USD 200 million).

The Parish Development Model (PDM), now in its third year, is a cornerstone of Uganda’s rural transformation plan. With Shs 3.3 trillion (USD 884 million) already disbursed and Shs 100 million (USD 26,800) allocated to each parish annually, the program aims to lift the remaining 33% of households still in subsistence farming into commercial enterprise. Museveni highlighted real-life testimonies—such as farmers in Kisoro district who turned Shs 1 million (USD 270) in seed capital into Shs 20 million (USD 5,360) profits—as evidence of the PDM’s potential.

Tourism, too, is on the rebound. Revenues surged to Shs 5.5 trillion (USD 1.473 billion) in 2024, driven by enhanced infrastructure, targeted marketing, and better security in protected areas. With improved roads, air access, and accommodations, Uganda is branding itself as a competitive tourism destination in East Africa. The government has committed to further investing in hygiene infrastructure, training for hospitality providers, and digital promotion of national attractions.

Minerals, oil and gas

Uganda’s mineral potential is being strategically developed to fuel economic growth. Gold, iron ore, lithium, tin, and uranium are among the minerals being processed domestically. The country now has ten gold refineries and is enforcing a ban on raw mineral exports to encourage value addition. A dedicated national mining company is being capitalized to ensure local participation in large-scale mining projects and to boost revenue retention.

Meanwhile, the oil and gas sector is approaching a critical milestone. The East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) and the Kabalega International Airport are near completion, setting the stage for commercial oil production.

Over 700 kilometers of roads have been constructed in the oil-rich Albertine region to support logistics and industry. The government also plans to build a major refinery in Hoima and establish a petrochemical industrial hub in Buyende.

On the other hand, Uganda’s electricity capacity now stands at 2,052 megawatts, up from just 150 MW in 1986. However, industrial demand is growing rapidly, prompting investment in new hydropower projects such as Ayago (840 MW), Kiba (400 MW), and Oriang (382 MW). A nuclear power station is also under development in Buyende, with a projected output of 8,400 MW, aimed at securing long-term energy sufficiency.

In science and innovation, Uganda is making bold advances. The Kiira Vehicle Plant is producing electric buses for local use and export, while DEI Biopharma has registered over 100 patents in the U.S., covering revolutionary medical technologies including cancer gene therapy and mRNA vaccines. Makerere and Gulu universities have developed diagnostics for agricultural and human health, saving the country millions in imports. Engineering hubs are also training the next generation of Ugandan technologists and innovators.

Human capital remains a top priority. The government has expanded access to healthcare through upgraded health centers, maternal wards, and regional cancer and heart centers. Education reforms have shifted focus to competency-based learning, vocational training, and universal access. A total of 161 seed secondary schools are now operational, with more under construction. Vocational programs in tailoring, mechanics, welding, and ICT are equipping youth with job-ready skills.

Going forward

As the President delivered the address with characteristic command and ideological conviction, the backdrop was unmistakably political, analysts said.

Uganda stands at a crucial crossroads—advancing through monumental achievements in infrastructure, economic expansion, industrialization, and innovation—yet is confronted with the persistent weight of poverty, inequality, youth unemployment, and service delivery gaps.

The address painted a picture of momentum: an economy poised to leap from Shs 224.9 trillion (USD 60 billion) to Shs 1.87 quadrillion (USD 500 billion) in just over a decade, a nation claiming global recognition for its resilience and reform, and a people slowly shifting from survival to sustainability.

But beneath the grandeur of policy projections and statistical milestones, the mood in many Ugandan homes remains measured and cautious. The 2026 general elections loom on the horizon, promising to test not only the strength of the nation’s democratic institutions but also the government’s ability to renew public trust.

Citizens across the country—farmers, market vendors, boda boda riders, students, the unemployed—are watching and waiting. They are yearning for a leadership that doesn’t just speak of transformation from podiums but one that breathes life into broken clinics, flooded roads, struggling schools, and empty pockets.

In this charged pre-election atmosphere, the State of the Nation Address served not merely as a report card, but as a statement of intent—a reflection of where Uganda has been, and a declaration of where it hopes to go.

Whether continuity or change defines the next administration, the real task ahead lies in translating rhetoric into relief, policies into palpable progress, and political stability into meaningful, daily impact for every Ugandan.

The future, as the President suggested, is unstoppable. But it must also be inclusive, accountable, and truly transformational.