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Despite contributing less than 0.1% of global emissions, Kenya’s ambitious NDC charts a path to 100% renewable electricity and deeper climate integration across its entire economy
Nairobi, Kenya | JESSE CHASE-LUBITZ | Kenya submitted its nationally determined contribution, or NDC, on Friday, and experts are impressed.
NDCs are country-specific plans that outline how a country will contribute to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming. Countries must submit new NDCs every five years.
“Kenya’s NDC demonstrates strong climate ambition, especially for a developing country,” said Joanita Mudambo, a climate and environmental specialist. “If effectively implemented, Kenya’s approach could serve as a blueprint for other African nations balancing climate resilience with development priorities.”
All countries must submit their NDCs by September, prior to the United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP30, held in Brazil this year. Kenya is only the 20th out of 178 countries to do so.
Kenya has extensive untapped coal and oil reserves and is reliant on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and forestry, yet it has committed to 100% renewable electricity generation by 2035 and reduce greenhouse gas emissions 35% by 2035.
The NDC also focuses on a “whole-of-government” and “whole-of-society” approach, which means integrating climate action into all areas of decision-making, from transportation to waste management to cooking and jobs.
Like many low- and middle-income countries, Kenya accounted for less than 0.1% of the global total of emissions in 2022, yet it is one of the most climate vulnerable countries. The report says that climate change costs Kenya between 3% and 5% of its gross domestic product annually. A drought in 2023 caused about $650 million in losses and floods in 2024 caused $1.46 billion.
Its ambitious NDC could inspire more leadership from low- and middle-income countries, many of whom argue that high-emitting high-income countries should be responsible for reductions in emissions.
“[Kenya’s] NDC represents a level of sacrifice which is far beyond Kenya’s fair share of ambition towards the achievement of global climate goals,” the NDC says.
Experts view
Experts say that this shows a high level of leadership from Kenya, and that it could be positioning itself as a leader in the region.
“What immediately strikes me about this NDC and where I see real leadership potential among developing countries is stark clarity on the ‘cost of inaction’ versus the ‘cost of ambition,” said Nripanka Das, a sustainability and renewable energy expert. “It’s a document from a nation where climate impacts are already measurable in GDP points lost annually.”
Kenya has a good track record for NDCs. In its last edition it also outlined ambitious goals. But this one pushes the country further, both in emissions reductions and in structural reforms across energy, agriculture, and finance. It aligns more strongly with just transition principles and integrates gender and youth inclusion.
The NDC distinguishes between what it can do alone and where it needs international support, however. The estimated budget required for the implementation of mitigation activities is $22.5 billion, the report says. Kenya will bear 19% of that, while 81% must come from international support.
“It’s a courageous ask,” said Das. “I think it’s about recognizing that frontline nations are taking outsized action relative to their historical footprint and need predictable, substantial global partnership to succeed,” Das added.
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Source: devex.com
